Page 28 - Oil and Energy-February 2013

28 • OIL&ENERGY
gas use in vehicles reaches 1.7 tril-
lion cubic feet (including GTL) by
2040, displacing 0.7 million bpd of
other motor fuels.
The United States becomes a
larger exporter of natural gas
than projected in the 2012
projection. U.S. natural gas
production increases throughout
the projection period, outpacing
domestic consumption by 2020
and spurring net exports of natural
gas. Higher volumes of shale gas
production in AEO2013 are central
to higher production volumes and
an earlier transition to net exports
than was projected in the 2012
Reference case. U.S. exports of
LNG from domestic sources rise
to approximately 1.6 trillion cubic
feet in 2027, double the 0.8 tril-
lion cubic feet projected in 2012;
the United States becomes a net
exporter of LNG in 2016.
Renewable fuel use grows at
a much faster rate than fossil
fuel use. The share of electricity
generation from renewables grows
from 13 percent in 2011 to 16
percent in 2040. Electricity gen-
eration from solar and, to a lesser
degree, wind energy sources,
grows as recent cost declines make
them more economical. However,
the AEO2013 projection is less optimistic
about the ability of advanced biofuels to
capture a rapidly growing share of the
liquid fuels market than the 2012 report.
As a result, biomass use in AEO2013 totals
4.2 quadrillion Btu by 2035 (compared to
5.4 quadrillion Btu in the 2012 report) and
4.9 quadrillion Btu in 2040, up from 2.7
quadrillion Btu in 2011.
With improved efficiency of energy use
and a shift away from the most carbon-
intensive fuels U.S. energy-related carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions remainmore than
5 percent below their 2005 level through
2040. The projected growth rate for U.S.
energy-related CO2 emissions has declined
successively in each Annual Energy Outlook
since 2005, reflecting both market and policy
drivers. Emissions from motor gasoline
demand in AEO2013 are lower than in the
2012 report as a result of the adoption of fuel
economy standards, biofuel mandates, and
shifts in consumer behavior. Emissions from
coal use in the generation of electricity are
U.S. Energy Data
Motor gasoline consumption is lower in
the AEO2013 relative to EIA’s 2012 pro-
jection, reflecting the introduction of more
stringent corporate average fuel economy
(CAFE) standards. Growth in diesel fuel
consumption is moderated by increased
use of natural gas in heavy-duty vehicles.
AEO2013 incorporates the greenhouse gas
(GHG) and CAFE standards for light-duty
vehicles (LDVs) through the 2025 model
year, which raise the new vehicle fuel
economy requirement from 32.6 miles per
gallon (mpg) in 2011 to 47.3 mpg in 2025.
The increase in vehicle efficiency reduces
gasoline use in the transportation sector by
0.5 million bpd in 2025 and by 1.0 million
bpd in 2035 in the 2013 report compared to
the 2012 Reference case. Furthermore, the
improved economics of natural gas results in
an increase in the use of liquefied natural gas
(LNG) in heavy-duty vehicles that offsets a
portion of diesel fuel consumption. The use
of petroleum-based diesel fuel is also reduced
by the increased use of diesel produced using
gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology. Natural
lower as power generation shifts from coal
to lower-carbon fuels, including natural gas
and renewables. The story is somewhat more
complex for natural gas. Emissions from
natural gas use are higher in the industrial
and electric power sectors in AEO2013 than
in the 2012 report as a result of increased
consumption; however, the increase is
partially offset by lower emissions from
natural gas use in the residential and com-
mercial sectors in AEO2013 as a result of the
implementation of efficiency standards for
energy-using equipment and other changes
that affect demand.
The Brent spot crude oil price declines
from $111 per barrel (in 2011 dollars) in
2011 to $96 per barrel in 2015.After 2015,
the Brent price increases, reaching $163 per
barrel in 2040, as growing demand leads to
the development of more costly resources.
World liquids consumption grows from 88
million bpd in 2011 to 113 million bpd in
2040, driven by demand in China, India,
Brazil, and other developing economies.
Total U.S. primary energy consumption
grows by 7 percent in the AEO2013
Reference case, from 98 quadrillion Btu
in 2011 to 108 quadrillion Btu in 2040.
The fossil fuel share of primary energy
consumption falls from 82 percent in 2011
to 78 percent in 2040 as consumption of
petroleum-based liquid fuels falls, largely
because of the incorporation of new fuel
efficiency standards for LDVs.
Energy use per capita declines by 15
percent from 2011 through 2040 as a
result of improving energy efficiency
(e.g., new appliance standards and CAFE)
and changes in the way energy is used in
the U.S. economy. Energy use per 2005
dollar of gross domestic product (GDP)
declines by 46 percent from 2011 to 2040
in AEO2013 as a result of a continued
shift from manufacturing to services
(and, even within manufacturing, to less
energy-inte sive manufacturing industries),
rising energy prices, and the adoption of
policies that promote energy efficiency.
CO2 emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP have
historically tracked closely with energy use
per dollar of GDP. In the AEO2013 Refer-
ence case, however, as lower carbon fuels
account for a bigger share of total energy use,
CO2 emissions per 2005 dollar of GDP
decline more rapidly than energy use per
2005 dollar of GDP, falling by 56 percent
from 2005 to 2040, at an annual rate of
2.3 percent.