President Trump has given countries until August 1 to reach trade deals or face the increased tariffs originally announced on Liberation Day in April, creating uncertainty for NEFI members, particularly those located in Canada or that do business across the border.

On Friday, President Trump said that the U.S. and Canada may not reach a trade deal by the deadline, telling reporters "Canada could be one where there's just a tariff, not really a negotiation." This marked the first time Trump had publicly addressed the state of Canada talks in nearly two weeks. Trump's July 10 letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney threatened to increase emergency (IEEPA) tariffs on Canadian exports from the current 25% to 35% if no deal is reached by August 1. However, reports indicate that such an increase would not affect Canadian goods that meet USMCA North American content rules – including most energy products – which are exempt from the current 25% IEEPA tariffs.

On Monday, Prime Minister Carney told reporters that negotiations are "at an intense phase" and acknowledged that "it's improbable that there will be deals without any tariffs at all," though he said Canada would only sign "the right deal," according to Reuters.

In related news, Trump announced a major trade deal with the European Union over the weekend. The agreement sets U.S. tariffs on EU goods at 15% – half the 30% rate initially threatened – and includes commitments for the EU to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and $750 billion on American energy over three years.

Adding complexity, oral arguments in the pending federal appeals court case challenging the IEEPA tariffs are scheduled for July 31. NEFI encourages members to monitor developments closely and maintain open dialogue with suppliers. Members should also review contracts with qualified professionals to ensure they are covered regardless of the outcome of trade talks. Stay tuned to NEFI communications for further updates.